Trump victory overshadows Stein win and gains by NC Dems
While it certainly appears that a “red wave” washed over the United States on Nov. 5, that’s not exactly the case in North Carolina, where Democrats held onto critical Council of State offices and made solid gains where it really counts — in the General Assembly.
“It was, in my mind, a pretty purple outcome in North Carolina,” said Chris Cooper, the Robert Lee Madison Distinguished Professor and Director of the Haire Institute for Public policy Institute at Western Carolina University whose most recent book, “Anatomy of a Purple State” was recently published by UNC Press. “We moved, like every state did, towards Trump at the presidential level. Yet the Democrats gained a seat on the Council of State, they broke the Republican supermajority despite the fact that the Republicans got better maps, and they held on to the only competitive congressional seat in the state.”
Former President and convicted felon Donald Trump came away with 312 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris’ 226 and also won the popular vote, a first for Republicans since President George W. Bush’s 2004 effort against then-Sen. John Kerry.
“Trump performed where we would expect a generic Republican to perform under these circumstances,” Cooper said. “Inflation was rising, the incumbent president is unpopular. You put those two things together, and you would expect a generic Republican to win by about three percentage points, and that’s exactly what we saw.”
Republicans nationally swept all swing states, managed to flip the Senate and also retained the House, giving them unified control of the federal government for at least the next two years.
In North Carolina, Trump earned 50.93% of the vote, giving him a 3.35% margin over Harris and expanding on his 1.34% win over Joe Biden in 2020 but falling short of his 3.66% win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
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“I think it was his message resonated with voters across the country,” said Michele Woodhouse, NCGOP Chair of the 11th Congressional District. “I loved the margin of victory, seeing him get all the swing states and winning the popular vote. There’s just no question on any part of it. It wasn’t a close race. I just think it was a resounding victory for him on all fronts. I didn’t think it was going to be as big of a win, but his messaging connected with voters, and [Harris’] simply did not.”
CONGRESS
Western North Carolina Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards, who became a Hurricane Helene hero for debunking storm response lies spread by his own party but two weeks later stood idly by as Trump repeated some of the lies Edwards had just debunked, will return to Washington for a second term.
Edwards, a former state senator from Hendersonville, defeated Democratic General Assembly Rep. Caleb Rudow, of Buncombe County, with 56.75% of the vote. Rudow ended up 13.5 points behind Edwards, with 43.25% of the vote.
Earning his first term by knocking off fellow Hendersonville Republican Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Primary Election, Edwards then survived a well-financed challenge from Buncombe County Commissioner Jasmine Beach-Ferrara in the General Election, prevailing by 9.28%.
Nonpartisan mapping website davesredistricting.org measured Republican performance in the current 11th Congressional District from 2016 to 2022 at 53.8%.
COUNCIL OF STATE
The last time voters chose candidates for governor and the council of state in 2020, turnout was 75.35%, or 5,545,848 out of 7,359,798 registered voters. Thus far for the 2024 election, turnout has been calculated to be a bit lower, 73.1%, with 5,675,346 out of 7,763,502 registered voters casting ballots. Although some ballots are still being counted, that figure won’t change much.
In an outcome suspected long before North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson’s pornography scandal unfolded nearly two months ago, Attorney General Josh Stein will become the state’s second consecutive Democratic governor after posting convincing numbers on his way to a solid election night victory, 54.84% to 40.16%.
Democrat and current North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein will serve as the state’s next governor. Jeffrey Delannoy photo
“Mark Robinson was the most uniquely bad politician we’ve seen in the last half century,” Cooper said. “He lost by 14 percentage points on the same ballot where his party carried the top of the ticket.”
Robinson had been down by as much as double digits in polling for much of the year, until a Sept. 19 story from CNN alleged that Robinson, posting on a porn website’s forum, had described himself as a “black NAZI!” and made graphic sexual comments at odds with his public persona of a deeply religious conservative. Robinson has also made frequent comments perceived as demeaning or threatening to women, Jews and members of the LGBTQ+ community.
Republicans had the chance to nominate a stable moderate, Treasurer Dale Folwell, in May’s Primary Election, but instead chose the fiery Robinson, who most suspected had little chance of defeating the well-liked Stein. Robinson’s scandal-plagued but meteoric rise has now careened into an Icarus-like fall that ends his time in state government and could end his political career — pending the result of a lawsuit Robinson filed against CNN and another man who accused Robinson of frequenting Greensboro’s all-night porn shops in the 1990s.
Cooper said the numbers don’t support the assertion that Republicans simply skipped the race on the ballot, meaning plenty of Republicans ended up voting for Stein. Adding more weight to Cooper’s “purple state” argument is the fact that a number of counties, including Henderson, Jackson and Transylvania, voted for Stein and for Trump. In Haywood County, Trump won all 29 precincts, but Robinson won only 20.
Woodhouse believes it was unaffiliated women who produced those outcomes.
“They supported Donald Trump’s fiscal policies. They supported his stance on keeping men out of women’s sports. They stood with him on all of those issues,” Woodhouse said. “I think we learned that women in America buy groceries more often than they get abortions, and that was a more important issue for them. But Mark Robinson, I think, was just a little too much for those women to take.”
Stein has now become a trailblazer of sorts and will serve as the state’s first Jewish governor after running a focused campaign and raising tons of cash — so much that he was able to make substantial 11th-hour donations to other Democratic candidates on North Carolina’s ballots.
Those contributions may have made all the difference in tight down ballot races on the Council of State, as well as in breaking the Republican supermajority in the General Assembly.
“Republicans are actually going to have to work with Democrats to get legislation across, and that’s something that they haven’t had to do for the last two years,” Anderson Clayton, chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party. “We’re going to see a lot more, I think, bipartisanship. You’re also going to see a lot more of Democrats being able to fight back against bad bills in the General Assembly.”
Stein will assume office with veto power intact if all members of his party stick together, and he’ll also have a lieutenant governor who has his back.
Sen. Rachel Hunt prevailed in her race for Robinson’s job by less than two points over Hal Weatherman, a longtime behind-the-scenes politico who’s tried to shake every hand in North Carolina over the past two years.
The race for Stein’s old job pitted two congressmen against each other, with Democrat Jeff Jackson prevailing over Republican Dan Bishop by 2.7%.
“I think that it’s incredible that for the first time in 12 years, we’ve got a Democratic governor, a Democratic lieutenant governor, and a Democratic attorney general, and that is in part due to the fact that we had really good candidates and a bench that was built up from folks that came out of our legislature,” Clayton said.
Former superintendent of Guilford County Schools, Democrat Mo Green, had a slightly more comfortable Election Day margin (2.2% ) over Republican Michelle Morrow, who was in attendance at the Jan. 6 insurrection and has called for the execution of former President Barack Obama, current President Joe Biden and current North Carolina Gov. Cooper.
Morrow knocked off moderate Republican incumbent Catherine Truitt in the May Primary Election — as with Robinson, surrendering a winnable seat in favor of running a far-right candidate who would fare well in the Primary Election, but not the General Election.
Longtime Democratic Secretary of State Elaine Marshall eked out a narrow 1.92%-point victory over Gaston County Commissioner Chad Brown, but that’s about where the good news for Democrats on the Council of State ends.
Another longtime incumbent, Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler, came away with more votes than any other Council of State candidate save Stein. That total gave Troxler a comfortable 7.83% win over farming consultant Sarah Taber.
Orange County Republican Brad Briner will assume Folwell’s job as treasurer over Mecklenburg County Democratic Rep. Wesley Harris, following a 5.04% victory.
Incumbent State Auditor Jessica Holmes was appointed in November 2023 to replace fellow Democrat Beth Wood, who resigned amid scandal more than a year ago. Holmes couldn’t parlay her incumbency to a full term, losing out to Fayetteville attorney Dave Boliek by 1.9%.
An open seat, commissioner of labor, will stay in Republican hands after Raleigh Attorney Luke Farley defeated Mecklenburg County Democrat Braxton Winston II by 5.66%. The seat was held by former Republican Rep. Josh Dobson, who declined to seek reelection and resigned on Nov. 8. Gov. Roy Cooper appointed longtime DOL employee Kevin O’Barr to serve out the remainder of Dobson’s term.
Incumbent Republican Commissioner of Insurance Mike Causey will hold onto his seat after his 4.4% win over Democratic Sen. Natasha Marcus.
JUDICIARY
The lone North Carolina Supreme Court race on the ballot remains too close to call, although Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin currently holds a lead of 0.14%, or about 8,000 votes. If after certification of the vote, the race is still within 0.5%, the loser at that point can request a recount, although with a margin of thousands of votes, it’s unlikely that would change the outcome. As of now, Allison Riggs, the incumbent, is one of only two Democrats on the seven-justice body.
GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Macon County native Kevin Corbin just keeps on winning and will return to Raleigh for his third term as the senator for a vast swath of Western North Carolina.
Corbin, who served 10 years on the Macon County Commission and 20 years on the Macon County School Board, was elected to the 120th House District in 2017, served two terms there, and is about to complete his second term representing much of the rural west, including Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Jackson, Macon and Swain counties, as well as much of Haywood County.
His electoral history has been a portrait of remarkably consistent overachievement; davesredistricting.org measured Republican performance in the 50th Senate District at 62.4% from 2016 to 2022. Corbin came away with 66.2% of the vote against Democrat Karen Burnette McCracken in 2022 and 66.7% of the vote against another Democrat, Victoria Fox, in 2020.
Mark Pless (left), Kevin Corbin (center) and Chuck Edwards (right) all won reelection. Cory Vaillancourt photo
During his eight years in the General Assembly, Corbin has bucked his party on major issues important to his district — rural broadband and Medicare expansion — while remaining loyal to his conservative roots. This year, Corbin faced his most serious opponent, attorney and Democrat Adam Tebrugge of Cullowhee, earning 66.56% to Tebrugge’s 33.44%.
Over the past four years, Macon County native and second-term House Rep. Karl Gillespie has represented one of the most heavily Republican areas in the state. He’ll continue for at least two more years, after voters handed him an easy election victory.
Responsible for Cherokee, Clay, Graham and Macon counties — the westernmost in North Carolina — Gillespie topped his Democratic opponent, former Andrews Mayor Nancy Curtis, by more than 50 points, with 75.17% of the vote. In 2022, Gillespie was unopposed. In 2020, Gillespie’s first House contest, he earned 74.19%, besting Democrat Susan Landis by 22,778 votes. Republican performance in the district from 2016 to 2022, according to davesredistricting.org, was 71.9%.
In just a short time, Gillespie has become a rising star among the state’s Republicans, serving as House majority whip, co-chair of the agriculture appropriations committee and co-chair of the environmental committee.
Rep. Mike Clampitt, the man still known for his protracted electoral feud with former Democratic Rep. Joe Sam Queen — the two faced off five times from 2012 through 2020, with Clampitt winning three times — will continue to represent Jackson, Swain and Transylvania counties.
Clampitt’s Democratic opponent, longtime Transylvania County economic guru Mark Burrows, put up a strong fight, but in the end he lost all three counties.
After redistricting enacted for the 2022 election, Transylvania County was added to Jackson and Swain counties to form Clampitt’s new district. Previously, his district had always included Jackson and Swain, but in 2020, it also included part of Haywood County.
The redraw meant that Clampitt had to make inroads in a new community, which he accomplished effectively enough in his 2022 defeat of Brevard architect Al Platt, a Democrat, by 2,798 votes there, en route to a 7.8-point victory across the district.
But that year, Clampitt only beat Platt in Transylvania County by 2.74 points, or 443 votes — good for 51.37% of the votes in a county then-President Donald Trump had won in 2020 with 57.03% of the vote. In 2020, turnout in Transylvania County was 77.31%.
This time, turnout was 77.23% in Transylvania County, and Clampitt maintained an edge of 1,730 votes, which helped him to an 8.52% margin there and a 10.78% win districtwide. His 55.39% tally bests the 54.5% Republican performance estimated by davesredistricting.org from 2016 to 2022.
Clampitt, a retired Charlotte fire captain, serves as co-chair of the families, children and aging policy committee as well as co-chair of the federal regulations and American Indian affairs committee.
Haywood County native and Republican Rep. Mark Pless will return to the North Carolina General Assembly for a third term after voters in Haywood and Madison Counties — both hit hard by Hurricane Helene a month ago — propelled him over his Democratic opponent.
Pless earned 30,687 votes, besting Marshall nurse Evelyn Davidson, who came away with 19,393 votes. His 61.28% tally this go-round approaches his career best of 63.6% in a 2020 victory over Alan Jones, however, Pless’ district included Yancey County at the time. In his most recent win, over Josh Remillard in 2022, Pless earned 60.28%. Republican performance in the current 118th District from 2016 to 2022 was estimated by davesredistricting.org at 60.0%.
Pless currently works in a number of leadership roles in the House that will help his district, and indeed much of the mountain west, as it embarks on a long recovery from the Sept. 27 storm. In addition to serving as co-chair of the House disaster recovery and homeland security committee, Pless also serves as co-chair of the joint legislative emergency management oversight committee.
COUNTY RACES
Two Haywood County Republicans seeking to fend off a challenge by a lone Democrat have done so and will return to their seats on the Haywood County Board of Commissioners.
When Brandon Rogers, now vice chairman, first ran and won in 2016, he led all candidates with 31.97% of the vote, or 17,091 votes on 69.89% turnout.
When Rogers ran again in 2020, he again led the ticket with 34.55%, or 23,151 votes on 79% turnout.
Each time, longtime commissioner and current board Chair Kevin Ensley was right behind him, with 29.95% of the vote in 2016 and 31.92% in 2020.
This time, it was Ensley, with 23,310 votes (39.18%) to lead the ticket.
Rogers wasn’t far behind, however, and garnered 22,633 votes, good for 38.04% on turnout of 79.42%.
Haywood County commissioners Kevin Ensley (above) and Brandon Rogers (below) will both return to the commission. Cory Vaillancourt photo
Although Haywood County Democrats could have fielded two candidates to oppose Rogers and Ensley, they could only manage to find one, Pigeon Community Multicultural Development Center Program Director Tausha Forney.
Voters could have selected any two candidates for the race, but didn’t have to; Forney pitched supporters the idea of voting only for her, effectively increasing the value of that vote, but it simply wasn’t enough for her to knock off either of the two popular incumbents. She finished with 13,556 votes, or 22.78%.
Rogers and Ensley have had to contend with a number of unusual, once-in-a-lifetime situations over just the past four years. In 2020, the Coronavirus Pandemic challenged local leaders and elected officials across the country. In 2021, deadly flooding from Tropical Storm Fred devastated the eastern reaches of Haywood County. In 2023, one of the county’s largest employers closed up shop, with little notice. Last month, Hurricane Helene dwarfed all of Haywood County’s previous catastrophes, both in scope and in the sheer scale of human suffering.
In talking to voters over the past month, The Smoky Mountain News noted that the incumbents’ experience with previous disasters was a major factor in sending them back to the commission for what will certainly be a long road to recovery.
While Haywood County returned two familiar faces to its county commission, Swain County will welcome at least one political newcomer to its board of commissioners. Who will win Swain’s second seat isn’t known yet.
Republican Tanner Lawson, a local youth pastor, led the way with 29.51% of the vote, and unaffiliated candidate Bobby Jenkins, a former county employee who worked in the buildings department, had 26.16%. Republican incumbent Kenneth Parton ended up with 25.99% of the vote. Unaffiliated candidate and current Mayor Pro Tem of Bryson City Ben King ended up with 18.34%.
Notably, the difference between Jenkins and Parton is only 16 votes. According to an email from Swain County Election Director Adam Byrnes, there are still about 150 provisional ballots and 20 absentee ballots to approve.
“The Swain County Commissioners race is very close, and it is too soon to say who will win the second of the two seats. Bobby Jenkins currently leads Kenneth Leonard Parton by 16 votes,” Byrnes said in the email.
The results will be finalized and certified on Friday, Nov. 15, at the county’s canvass. No additional uploads of results will be made until that date. If the results stand, Jenkins and Lawson are set to join Commission Chair Kevin Seagle, Vice Chair Roger Parsons and Commissioner David Loftis.
In Jackson County, Republicans have secured two more seats on the Jackson County Commission, creating a fully Republican board. In district four Republican Michael Jennings won 8,860 votes (52.13%) to Democrat Sally Jennings Hudson’s 8,136 votes (47.87%). In district three, Republican Jenny Lynn hooper won 8,720 votes (51.18%) to Democrat Cody Lewis’s 8,257 (48.46%), but Hooper’s residency remains a question. Should Hooper be deemed unable to serve, her replacement would be chosen by the Jackson County Republican Party.
Three Macon County incumbents maintained their seats on the Macon County Board of Education. Jim Breedlove, current Chairman of the Board of Education won reelection in the only contested race to represent district four. Breedlove won 5,996 votes, or 43.37%, to Danny Reitmeier’s 4,812 (34.81%) and John DeVille’s 2,950 (21.34%). Both Hilary Wilkes, who represents district one, and Melissa Evans, who represents district three, were running unopposed in their respective races.
All results are considered unofficial until county boards of elections certify local races on Nov. 15 and the State Board of Elections certifies state and federal contests on Nov. 26.
