Early voting has started. In North Carolina and across the nation there are many close races that will likely be decided by just a few percentage points. That means the swing voters — those who don’t vote a straight party ticket but instead vote for the candidate based on their qualifications or perhaps even their personality — could very well be the difference in those tight races.

Two years ago, The Smoky Mountain News took a look  at statistical data on the party affiliation of registered voters across the state and in the seven westernmost counties, from Jan. 1, 2016 through Jan. 1, 2020. It was great news for Republicans, and the exact opposite for Democrats.

Only twice since 1972 has the state of North Carolina supported a Democratic candidate for president. But if a years-long trend in party registration continues, Republicans could have an easier time holding on to the Tar Heel state and its 15 electoral votes this fall.

The five men — three Democrats, a Republican and a Libertarian — hoping to unseat Asheville Republican Congressman Mark Meadows in November will now be joined by one woman, if she can get the signatures she needs to make the ballot.