By all means, do the research
To the Editor:
One of the few good things to come from the pandemic is you hear more and more people say, “I’ve done my own research.” As we face this election season, that has never been more important.
Let’s take a recent TV ad to illustrate the importance of not just doing the research, but doing meaningful research.
The ad states that under the current administration, we’ve seen the highest inflation in 40 years, the highest gasoline prices ever, skyrocketing interest rates and home costs out of control — all correct. It also suggests that we are on the verge of a recession, a very questionable assertion. What those who wrote this ad conveniently leave out is this is old news. Much has happened between when those data points occurred and now. Judge for yourself if the current situation paints a very different picture.
• Inflation — then in June 2022, 9.1%. Now in September 2024, 2.5%.
For perspective, compare that to the 12.5% inflation rate in 1980 (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
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• Gasoline — in North Carolina then in June 2022, $4.67/regular unleaded; $5.76 for diesel per gallon (AAA). Now in October 2024, $2.70/regular unleaded; $3.39 for diesel (personal observation). For even more perspective, regular unleaded 11 years ago in 2013 was $2.87 per gallon (personal experience).
• Median mortgage rates — then in October 2023, 7.8% (US News Money).
Now on September 23, 2024, 30-year fixed rate 6.09% (Freddie Mac), a 2-year low.
This is still higher than recent years, but pales in comparison to the 16.6% mortgage rate in 1981 (Bankrate).
• Impending recession — likely comes from the Sahm rule, which has been very accurate in detecting prior recessions. It states that an increase of 0.5% in the 3-month rolling average unemployment rate indicates recession is happening. This rule was triggered in July 2024 as unemployment rate increased from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to now 4.3%.
However, even Dr. Sahm, who created this rule, does not believe there is a recession right now (Bloomberg). Moreover, GDP was 3% last quarter (Federal Reserve of Atlanta), so claiming that we are about to have a recession is unsupported. For perspective, current unemployment rate is still very low historically; rate in April 2020, 14.8% (Bureau of Labor Statistics).
So were those who wrote this ad unaware, ignorant, misled themselves, or intentionally misleading to push their view when they cherry picked some data and failed to include other more recent information?
By all means, do your own research and consider these points:
• Credibility matters — is the source reliable? Is there a demonstrated track record of providing all the facts with the intention of helping you form a well constructed opinion? If they are just using some of the facts or just some other opinion to justify what they want you to believe, best to pay no attention to what they say.
• Methods matter — how are they gathering information? Who are their sources? If those are not credible, best to pay no attention to what they say. If a study is quoted, is the design of that study even capable to generate the conclusion suggested. If not, best to pay no attention to what they say. If a headline says something ‘may’, it’s equally valid to insert ‘may not’. See what difference that makes.
• Reproducibility matters — one study/one opinion does not a consensus make. That requires credible independent investigators verifying the facts and the conclusions. If it is just the same belief being repeated over and over, best to pay no attention to what they say.
Doing your own research is essential, but doesn’t this example demonstrate that investing the time and effort to do your research meaningfully is even more essential, especially right now? And especially in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.
Mark Jaben
Waynesville
