Many across Western North Carolina wondered what they could have done differently in the wake of Hurricane Helene.
People can think of a host of folks this would apply to — elected leaders, first responders, those who lost property or loved ones. Among that group are professionals whose job it is to communicate reliable information during an uncertain time. Jason Boyer has become a trusted voice during his 17 years offering weather forecasts in the region, someone people feel they have grown to trust.
Boyer is the chief meteorologist for WLOS, the local ABC affiliate. Parts of Western North Carolina receive news broadcasts from Tennessee and South Carolina. WLOS is the only station based out of the region, meaning most people turn to Boyer and his colleagues for their local forecast.
Boyer began his time as WLOS’ chief meteorologist 17 years ago. He said he hadn’t covered a devastating weather event until Tropical Storm Fred claimed six lives in Cruso and flooded downtown Canton. The widespread damage caused by Helene was something else entirely.
The day-to-day pressure for a TV meteorologist is pretty low. A few degrees here or there or a stray shower may mess up someone’s afternoon plans, but no real harm is done. Sometimes, the stakes are a bit higher. Farmers want to know if temperatures may get cold enough that crops are subject to frost damage. Parents are curious whether an incoming winter storm may lead to a school cancelation. Sometimes, lives are on the line.
“Helene was a storm where it was obvious this is going to be life-threatening, and unfortunately, people probably were going to perish,” he said. “That was something you try not to think about, but in the back of your mind, it’s there.”
The modern age makes things a bit trickier too. There’s a whole host of amateur meteorologists with social media followings. Some are good, some are bad, and some are merely hyping forecasts to chase clicks.
“I know social media is a wonderful thing in many ways, but it’s also a very terrible thing because it can make people distrust, and I think there’s a lot of that,” Boyer said.
He recalled that once it became clear how bad Helene could be, he texted those close to him let them know to “be ready for the worst.” He grew especially concerned during what’s called a precursor rain event a couple of days ahead of Helene, when the ground became saturated in many places.
“We knew that it was likely to be unprecedented in terms of the amounts of rain that far in advance,” he said. “More than 48 hours out, the Weather Service was starting to use language like ‘unprecedented, historic,’ those kinds of words. Even ‘catastrophic’ was being used.”
Over 100 people would die in North Carolina because of Helene. Like many who did vital work before, during, and after Helene, Boyer considers what he could have done better.
“Could I have made the points more clearly? What could I have said differently? What could I have shown illustratively?” Boyer considered. “But there is only so much you can do. Did we do everything, in retrospect, that I think we could have done? It’s probably a no, but I think that could be said for anybody.”
Even if Boyer had done a “perfect job,” he considers that it wouldn’t be enough. No matter what he and local leaders do to prepare people for the severity of what may come, it’s hard to imagine something of that magnitude, something that is truly incomprehensible until you experience it. Just getting people prepared to move to higher ground if the water levels rise is difficult because those people are so used to taking shelter during just about any other weather event. There are also those who will put themselves in harm’s way, unknowingly or not, because they want to marvel at the sheer force of nature. To describe a storm as catastrophic may make the adventure all the more alluring.
“You can tell people all you want until you’re blue in the face that something’s going to be really bad, but it comes down to them making the decision,” Boyer said.
He also considers that predicting the weather isn’t the same as predicting infrastructural or even institutional failures.
“I couldn’t have gone on TV and told people, ‘Some of you are going to be without power for a month, some of you are going to be without water for more than a month,’” he said.
Of course, there’s the reality that even explaining the specific long-term effects of a catastrophic storm could cause more chaos, which only compounds the problems first responders and others have to deal with.
“Who’s going to go on TV and say that? It would put people in a panic … my boss would probably come in and say, ‘What are you doing?’ You’ve got to be careful because your messaging has to be impactful to make people take action but not to panic,” he said,
“You just you hope that you’ve done enough, and you don’t want to panic people, but you want action to be taken, and there’s a fine line,” he added.
Boyer also considers some ramifications of the storm on a different level. There are some people who are so disadvantaged socioeconomically that it isn’t so easy to find a safe place to ride out the storm. Many are more concerned that they’ll have to get to work in the morning no matter what havoc is brought by the storm.
“People can’t pay their rent, or they can’t buy food for their kids, or they weren’t expecting to seek higher ground and go pay for a hotel for three days. That’s not going to happen, so I can’t help the fact that there are these people that are vulnerable. I mean, there’s a lot of vulnerable people that are in floodplains and in landslide country, and that’s the unfortunate thing.”
Boyer prays that something like Helene doesn’t happen again, but with the impacts of climate change, the previously unthinkable may be something everyone must endure from time to time.
“Our odds of experiencing something like that again are probably greater now than in past,” he said.
Boyer said he’s the kind of person who wears his emotions on his sleeve, and yet he doesn’t like to talk about Helene. Like many, visions of the storm are haunting, and there’s always that lingering question — what would he do differently?
“You feel like you could have maybe done more to save lives,” he said. “That’s just human nature. And I know people say, ‘Well, you did as much as you could,’ and I know that that’s probably true, but in a sense, you’re always your worst critic.”