By the numbers: Where Helene recovery stands, and where it's going
Portions of Marshall’s riverside downtown were reduced to rubble, and remain so nearly five months later. Cory Vaillancourt photo
While the financial impact of Hurricane Helene has been apparent since the morning of Sept. 27, 2024, economic data from the North Carolina Department of Commerce and other sources now show Western North Carolina counties started to feel the pain even before the storm hit.
Local planners are optimistic about recovery — especially with the projected reopening of one lane of traffic in each direction on Interstate 40 next month — but are tempering expectations for 2025.
In the 28 counties most affected by Hurricane Helene, taxable spending during September and October 2024 dropped by roughly $380 million compared to the same months in 2023, resulting in state sales tax collections coming in more than $18 million shy of previous year totals in those counties.
Mitchell, Yancey and Buncombe counties had the worst September of the 28 counties, with sales tax collections down 29.8%, 25.3% and 17.7%, respectively. The three counties are home to Bakersville, Spruce Pine, Burnsville and the entire Asheville metro area, all of which were heavily damaged.
Rounding out the top five were Transylvania (-17.07%) and Swain (-16.39%) counties. Although the Transylvania County towns of Brevard and Rosman incurred substantial damage, Swain County was left relatively unscathed but still suffered due to regional disruptions.
Henderson County, the second-largest county in the impacted region, finished 10th-worst, with collections there dropping 12.6%. Haywood County was next in line, with an 11.5% decrease.
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For October, Avery, Buncombe and Madison counties saw drastic decreases of 32.1%, 26.6% and 25.3%, respectively. Haywood rebounded to a 6.2% decrease, while in Henderson spending nearly recovered to the previous October’s level, down only 1.63%.
Overall, for September and October, Avery County saw the largest collections decrease, 23.69%, or about $1.1 million. Buncombe was next, percentage-wise, at -22.2%, which translates to a loss of $14.5 million.
Haywood’s 9.0% decrease put it at 9th-worst, with a decrease of $959,000 in state sales tax collections year-over-year.
As far as local government budgets are concerned, collections don’t translate directly to revenue; state sales taxes are remitted to the state, which then redistributes the revenue according to a complicated formula.
For the year ending June 30, 2024, Haywood County collected more than $59 million in state sales taxes on $1.24 billion in taxable sales. Over the past few years, the county’s $106 million budget has benefitted from around $16 million in state sales tax distributions each year.
The decrease in collections is thus relatively small, and the decrease in distributions will be even smaller. But as Haywood County Manager Bryant Morehead begins budget preparations for a new budget that will take effect July 1, he has the unenviable task of forecasting the lingering impact of Helene on those collections and distributions.
“We’re sitting here looking at the numbers like, is it 3% or is it 5%?” Morehead said. “We just want to get that porridge right.”
At least some of the decrease in taxable sales came due to workers who no longer had jobs or small businesses that were washed away. Unemployment in Buncombe County surged to 10.4% in October 2024, well above the 2.7% reported for October 2023. Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon and Swain counties all hovered around 3% in October 2023, but only Haywood and Henderson saw significant impacts in October 2024, 5.2% and 5.0% respectively.
November’s unemployment figures show similar trends, with Buncombe County peaking at 7.4% versus 2.6% a year prior, while Haywood and Henderson rebounded to 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively.
Another big reason for the decline came in the form of tourists who, for various reasons, weren’t able to visit their favorite Western North Carolina destinations. When visitors aren’t booking rooms, they’re not buying fuel, groceries or souvenirs, they’re not visiting bars, restaurants or other attractions, they’re not paying sales tax on those items and they’re not paying room occupancy taxes.
Room occupancy tax collections in Haywood County plunged during the busy fall leaf season, usually the peak of Western North Carolina’s seasonal economy. Haywood County was first impacted in September.
“We basically lost the whole last week,” said Corrina Ruffieux, executive director of the TDA. Ruffieux explained that as Helene was widely anticipated to strike — some municipalities began preparing for the storm on the Sunday before the Friday storm — visitors began cancelling reservations. A group of travel journalists and influencers scheduled to visit HCTDA that week were among them.
Ruffieux’s assertion also applies to sales tax data; during the entire last week of that month, there were fewer visitors than usual spending less money than usual and for at least the last three days of the month, many businesses weren’t open. Those that were accepted only cash, and some, like gas stations, instituted rationing.
Haywood County occupancy tax revenues were down $84,000 (27.3%) for September, but October was much worse. In October 2023, the Haywood TDA collected $403,324. In October 2024, that dropped 43.3% to $229,000, suggesting a drop in visitor spending on accommodations alone of more than $6 million that month.
In a trend that will hopefully carry through to November sales tax data once it’s released, Haywood occupancy tax collections rebounded quickly in November, down only 3.68% or $9,000.
“We’re actually holding last year’s trend on tourism, if it weren’t for those two months,” Morehead said. “That is hopeful for sales tax, because what generates a lot of our sales tax is visitors.”
There are a few reasons for the quick rebound, Ruffieux said.
“We did work very hard to get as many hotels as possible to accept FEMA vouchers, and people who missed their October visits still really wanted to come,” she said of those who rescheduled. Other factors include the reopening of parts of the Blue Ridge Parkway near the end of October, and the intrepid efforts of the Lake Junaluska Conference and Retreat Center.
“Lake J,” as it’s called by locals, accrued $1 million in damages, including to the famed Harrell Center and the Rose Walk, and also suffered about a million dollars in cancelled reservations. More than 300 tires, along with other debris, were pulled from the lake itself. Executive Director Ken Howle cut room rates in half, and the volume was enough to offset the loss.
“Initially it was the rescue workers and a week after the storm it became the recovery workers. Our community and staff rallied,” Howle said. Occupancy tax collections for Lake J were up 22.7% in October and 68.5% in November.
The triage portion of Helene recovery is over, and as the disaster fades from the nation’s collective consciousness, local governments are left to promote economic recovery largely on their own. Meaningful assistance from the North Carolina General Assembly and from Congress has not been forthcoming, at least for the small businesses that power the region’s economy.
While loans with generous terms are available, they’re still loans, and businesses encumbered by COVID-era loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration generally aren’t interested. In Haywood County, where the eastern reaches were devastated by flooding in 2021, some business owners are still paying off loans from that disaster.
Last week in Mills River, Gov. Stein proposed another $1 billion in assistance from the General Assembly, matching the total of three relief bills passed in 2024. Republicans in the North Carolina House countered with $500 million in a new relief bill introduced on Feb. 4 [see RELIEF, p. 9], but it doesn’t include the direct financial assistance — grants, not loans — state and local leaders have been calling for since October.
“I’ve seen a few businesses close, for sure,” said David Francis, president and CEO of the Haywood County Chamber of Commerce. “People are like, ‘I’ve been hit twice, why do it again?’ But I’ve not seen the numbers [of closings] you would think, and not the numbers you hear out of other counties either.”
From his perspective, Francis sees a big problem in the inability of businesses to secure funding. He plays a key role in the Haywood Advancement Foundation’s small business grant program, which in November announced it would provide grants of up to $25,000 to affected entities, drawing from a pool of $200,000 raised from institutional and private donors.
As of Feb. 7, HAF had granted nearly all of its funds but is still fundraising and will continue making grants as practicable. Gov. Josh Stein, in conjunction with the Dogwood Health Trust, recognized the problem as well, announcing on Jan. 31 a $30 million grant program for small businesses with annual revenues up to $2.5 million.
Haywood County dodged the brunt of Hurricane Helene and the financial impact therof, but it wasn't unscathed. Cory Vaillancount photo
“I’m appreciative of Dogwood and Gov. Stein, but there’s great needs out there, the ability of businesses to access capital is huge still,” said Francis, who added that plenty of groups continue the push for direct financial assistance to affected businesses from state and federal governments. “All levels of our government need to understand how important small business funding is.”
Francis’ biggest concern remains the reconstruction of a critical piece of transportation infrastructure.
“Now that we’ve got through the holidays and are a little bit post-Helene, it’s about what happens to Interstate 40,” he said.
Interstate 40 is a critical access point to Western North Carolina from the north. Portions of the roadway were washed away during Helene, and travel into and out of Tennessee has been completely halted since then. Costly delays in commercial activity and a decrease in visitation have ensued.
The most recent indications from the North Carolina Department of Transportation suggested at least a partial reopening by spring — until a Feb. 10 tour by U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, Sen. Thom Tillis, Stein, and others. At the event, Stein announced that one lane in each direction would be open by March 1 [see I-40, p. 4].
If that happens, the speed with which that message reaches businesses and tourists will be important to the region’s recovery.
Ruffieux’s TDA continues to battle messaging from the immediate aftermath of the storm, including from then-Gov. Roy Cooper, that the region is “closed,” and businesses aren’t currently operating. While Cooper’s plea was timely and pertinent — gawkers clogging up roadways and utilizing limited resources like hotel rooms was a major concern — Ruffieux and others in the destination management industry are now fighting against millions of impressions in the national media that reinforced the now-obsolete directive, “Don’t come here.”
“We’re going to be down from the prior year. Last year was our biggest ever, but we’re doing everything we can to mitigate those decreases,” Ruffieux said. “We at Visit Haywood, and all our peers throughout Western North Carolina along with VisitNC are collaborating on marketing to counteract that I-40 concern.”
Haywood County government has been known for years to run a pretty lean operation, a fact supported by financial monitor Standard and Poor’s post-Helene reaffirmation of the county’s outstanding credit rating.
Additionally, on Dec. 2, 2024, the North Carolina Department of Commerce issued its annual list of county distress rankings, a three-tiered system that scores counties on economic well-being to encourage investment in less prosperous areas of the state. Despite the damage from Helene, the destruction of Interstate 40, the higher unemployment, the lower state sales tax and room occupancy tax collections, Haywood County was moved from the middle tier to the highest tier of prosperity, suggesting economic recovery isn’t a fantasy.
“I’m really hopeful,” Morehead said. “I’m optimistic. S&P is optimistic. And I think the state, by the tier system, shows optimism there.”
