Archived News

First poll in NC-11 predicts tight race between Beach-Ferrara, Edwards

Jasmine Beach-Ferrara speaks in Haywood County in 2021 Jasmine Beach-Ferrara speaks in Haywood County in 2021 Cory Vaillancourt photo

An internal poll commissioned by the Democratic nominee for NC-11 just days after the May 17 Primary Election suggests the race could be tighter than district demographics suggest.

“Jasmine [Beach-Ferrara] begins the general election in a strong position because her message is clearly resonating with Western North Carolinians,” said Campaign Manager Luke Tonat. “Her favorability ratings are strong, especially when considering the Republican lean of the district.”

The poll, conducted by Survey 160 between May 18 and May 20 via mobile phone SMS, reached 308 likely voters from all parties. The stated margin of error is 6 points, with a 95% confidence level.

Toplines show Republican nominee Sen. Chuck Edwards (R-Henderson) with 36% favorable ratings, and 40% unfavorable. For Beach-Ferrara, a two-term Buncombe County commissioner, 38% hold a favorable opinion and 29% unfavorable.

Among voters who have already decided or lean strongly, Beach-Ferrara can claim 40% support, against Edwards’ 46%.

Surprisingly, Mills River Libertarian David Coatney shows 6% support, perhaps double or triple usual Libertarian levels.

Related Items

Edwards also holds an advantage in name recognition with 76%, as opposed to Beach-Ferrara’s 67%.

While internal polls commissioned by candidates can often be derided due to a perceived bias in favor of the candidate writing the check, they’re also routinely used by candidates to make spending decisions, making honest data collection vital to the campaigns that commission them.

Nonpartisan redistricting site davesredistricting.org shows that NC-11 should normally expect Democrats to garner 43.9% support, with Republicans at 53.6% — a 9.7% gap for Democrats.

The General Election will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 8.

Leave a comment

Smokey Mountain News Logo
SUPPORT THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN NEWS AND
INDEPENDENT, AWARD-WINNING JOURNALISM
Go to top
Payment Information

/

At our inception 20 years ago, we chose to be different. Unlike other news organizations, we made the decision to provide in-depth, regional reporting free to anyone who wanted access to it. We don’t plan to change that model. Support from our readers will help us maintain and strengthen the editorial independence that is crucial to our mission to help make Western North Carolina a better place to call home. If you are able, please support The Smoky Mountain News.

The Smoky Mountain News is a wholly private corporation. Reader contributions support the journalistic mission of SMN to remain independent. Your support of SMN does not constitute a charitable donation. If you have a question about contributing to SMN, please contact us.