“This fall could be one of the best leaf color seasons in Western North Carolina in recent memory,” said Mathews, an associate biology professor. “Three words explain it — unusually dry weather.”

Mathews bases the fall color forecast on both past and predicted weather conditions. She believes that the formation of high pigment levels in leaves correlates with dry weather throughout the year, especially as fall gets closer. 

This year, rain has been plentiful enough to avoid drought and keep trees healthy, but low enough that sugar concentrations in the leaves have increased, as they do during dry weather when trees don’t take up as much water through the roots. More sugar means more production of the red pigment that becomes visible when green chlorophylls disappear for the winter. 

El Niño is another piece of good news for fall color. Meteorologists are predicting a light hurricane season this year, which reduces the chance of heavy rain and windstorms in the mountains during August and September, Mathews said. 

As always, peak color is dependent on decreasing sunlight hours and the elevation of a particular location. Peak color often arrives in elevations above 4,000 feet in the first half of October and arrives during the third week at mid-elevations of 2,500 to 3,500 feet, Mathews said.