To the Editor:

On Sept. 9 the National Audubon Society released the results of several years’ worth of studies that predict the future ranges of 588 North American bird species, taking into account measurable levels of accelerated global warming (http://climate.audubon.org). The bird census data that was used in these studies came from citizen derived Christmas Bird Counts as well as Breeding Bird Surveys. Both of these bird survey methods have been frequently carried out in communities around our state and across North America. The weather data for the studies came from the National Weather Data Center and from leading climatologists.

Very briefly, distribution maps of the various bird species were generated and associated with existing climatic characteristics. Then, subtle predicted changes in precipitation, season onset and temperature were added to the computerized models and new future bird distributions were predicted.

The forecasts are remarkable. Some bird species, especially those currently associated with warmer climates, are expected to expand their ranges further north and to what we currently think of as higher, cooler elevations. For example, in Highlands, mockingbirds, a bird that is common at slightly lower elevations, have begun appearing in recent Christmas Bird Counts for the first time. Other bird species are predicted to simply shift distributions further north but without net increases or decreases in total area of distribution. And then there are those species that may not have adequate places to “escape” to where climate and accompanying ecologic conditions are favorable for their survival; of the 588 species studied, 126 species are predicted to suffer severe declines by 2050 and another 188 species by 2080; 314 are considered at-risk species!   

By now you will have guessed that, unless we can reverse or significantly slow the trend in accelerated global warming, our grandchildren will probably not recognize many of the birds that we think of as avian talisman of the Southern Appalachians (e.g., scarlet tanagers, and many of our warbler species … perhaps even our currently plentiful juncos).

This study is the most comprehensive analysis that has specifically addressed the future of large numbers of vertebrate species on our continent in the face of unprecedented rates of global warming. While I doubt anyone would claim these to be perfect forecasts, they are the best information we currently have to help focus our attention on the challenges ahead. And clearly, if accelerated climate change continues, other dramatic ecologic changes, in addition to bird species distribution, will follow suit; at least most birds have the ability to fly to possible new habitat, many of our other fellow creatures and plants are not as mobile.

National Audubon has provided us with some thought provoking projections that involve familiar bird species. Presumably these projections will be further refined and evaluated. Meanwhile, it is our responsibility to vigorously protect our existing environmental strongholds for bird habitat (starting with our own gardens) and, like it or not, to take action to help slow or reverse the accelerated pace of long-term global warming (see also http://nc.audubon.org and http://highlandsaudubonsociety.org/index.html).

Russ Regnery

President, 

Highlands Plateau Audubon Society